Track record

Every sealed forecast, graded after the final whistle. Nothing removed.

Right result: actual against expected

If the probabilities are honest, the two lines stay together.

Correct callsExpected from our probabilities

Calibration

When we say 40%, it should happen about 40% of the time.

Tested on 67,125 matches

Walk-forward backtest: every match from 2016 to September 2026 predicted using only results available before it.

49.3%right result (bookmaker 50.6%)
66.8%of 23,046 picks came in (expected 65.6%)
56.0%over/under 2.5 right
1.6%behind bookmaker on log loss
Bookmakers are still slightly sharper.